How are cyclones forecast, and how difficult was it to track Cyclone Nivar’s progress?

Cyclone Nivar, that barrelled through Tamil Nadu and brought copious rain in its wake, 

was the third major cyclone to land on India’s coast this year, besides Amphan and Nisarga. 

The Nivar storm originated in the Bay of Bengal and whipped up windspeeds close to 125-

145 kmph, blowing away roofs and felling standing crop. However, relatively fewer lives 

were lost compared to the havoc wreaked by Amphan in West Bengal in May. What aided 

relief operations in the anticipation of Nivar was that it largely conformed to forecasts 

issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 

How are cyclones forecast? 

Over the years, India’s ability to track the formation of cyclones has improved significantly. 

There is a network of 12 doppler weather radars (DWR) along India’s coast if one were to 

begin counting from Kolkata and trawl up to Mumbai — there are 27 in all in the country. 

Depending on where a storm is forming, these radars send pulses of radio waves to gauge 

the size as well as the speed at which water droplets are moving. The earlier generation of 

radars was unable to track such progress in real time, but with DWRs, now the base 

standard of weather radars, it is usually possible to detect a potential storm at least four-

five days in advance. The IMD also collaborates with similar international networks, such 

as the Japan Meteorological Agency, the U.S. National Hurricane Center, and the U.S. Central 

Pacific Hurricane Center, and these bodies constantly send warnings and forecasts about 

changes in the ocean weather. The near ubiquity of ocean-buoys that track changes in 

ocean sea surface temperatures as well as dedicated meteorological satellites improve the 

odds of early detection. 

How difficult was it to track Nivar’s progress?

Nivar was the second tropical cyclone that formed around India and made landfall this 

week. Cyclone Gati, which originated in the Arabian Sea and intensified into a ‘very severe 

cyclonic storm’, made its way towards Africa and made landfall in Somalia on November 

22. However around then, another system emerged in the Bay of Bengal, that eventually 

morphed into a cyclonic storm by November 24. The IMD’s initial forecasts said it would at 

most be a ‘severe cyclonic storm’, but it then upgraded it to the same league as Gati, i.e, a 

‘very severe cyclonic storm’. The IMD follows a five-stage classification for cyclones, with 

the lowest a ‘cyclonic storm’ generating wind speeds of 62-87 kmph, and the highest a 

‘super cyclonic storm’, generating winds over 222 kmph.

April-June and October-December are India’s cyclone seasons. The arriving monsoon, as 

well as its retreat, stir up the surrounding seas and generate cyclones. Though the Bay of 

Bengal is three times more likely to generate cyclones, the ones that originate in the 

Arabian Sea are trickier, as the cyclone, while ostensibly moving away from India’s western

coast, can suddenly ‘recurve’ and move back in. There are also fewer radars along India’s 

west coast than the eastern coast, and all these reasons make the Bay of Bengal cyclones 

more tractable. In this context, Nivar, because it conformed to a fairly predictable trajectory 

and was not super cyclonic in intensity, gave State administrations in Puducherry, Tamil 

Nadu and Andhra Pradesh time to prepare, and was far less damaging than Amphan. 

However, the cyclone season is not yet over and more systems are likely to form in the 

coming weeks, according to the IMD. 

How has disaster warning changed? 

Forecasts, on their own, are important, but they cannot override the importance of 

preparedness by State agencies. The formation of cyclones is preceded by ‘depressions’, 

and they are often the first warnings. Not all depressions become cyclones, but many 

coastal States — especially those with a history of being battered — begin organising 

shelters and evacuation of coastal residents. Sea pockets, where cyclones form, are also 

places that drive schools of fish and lure fisherfolk. While meteorological agencies give 

advisories on where fish-catches are likely, they suspend such advisories during storm 

formation to dissuade fishermen from venturing out. The ubiquity of mobile 

communication makes it much easier to quickly give warnings. The IMD also issues flood 

forecast maps, in collaboration with urban bodies that forecast which pockets in a city are 

likely to be flooded and where crop damage is likely to be maximum.

Love Jihad Laws

 The proposed Uttar Pradesh ordinance seeking to prohibit “unlawful” religious conversions represents a regressive march towards unacceptable medievalism and a reprehensible zeal to police the private lives and beliefs of citizens. Apparently inspired by similar legislation in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, it has sought to include “alluring into marriage” as an additional ground for declaring an instance of religious conversion as illegal, apart from the use of “force, coercion, undue influence and deceit”. 

What is the law? 

The U.P. proposal envisages prison terms, from one to five years in general, three to five years for conversions involving women and SC/ST members, and adds a possible three to 10-year jail term for “mass conversion”. There is also a prior declaration provision on an intended conversion. 

These suggestions were contained in a report of the Uttar Pradesh State Law Commission submitted last year. While the panel had suggested that conversion solely for marriage should be declared null and void, the State’s note on the ordinance says it provides for invalidation of marriages solemnised solely for conversion. 

Against SC judgement 

While upholding the validity of the Freedom of Religion Acts of Madhya Pradesh and Odisha, in Stanislaus (1977), the Supreme Court had held that the “right to propagate” a religion did not include the “right to convert”. However, those early laws did not bar conversions by marriage. The Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the proposed U.P. law would be vulnerable on that score. After the Court’s “right to privacy” judgment, and the Shafin Jahan-Hadiya case (2018), it would be no more constitutional to use “marriage” as a ground for prohibiting conversion, as it involves the rights of privacy, choice and marital freedom. Further, all such previous laws were seen as “public order” legislation — the claim is that “forced” or “fraudulent” conversions lead to disturbance of order. An inter-faith marriage, by itself, is unlikely to be seen by the courts as an event impinging on public order. Therefore, making marriage simpliciter a ground for rendering conversion illegal may not survive judicial scrutiny. Probably to avoid this lacuna, the U.P. ordinance uses the term “allurement by marriage”, but its potential for misuse is the same. Further, the provision on mandatory prior declaration of an intent to convert is similar to the one struck down by the Himachal Pradesh High Court in 2012 as violating the right to keep one’s faith a secret. It is disconcerting that several States are keen to join this bandwagon against inter-marriages despite its potential for deepening social discord and communal divides. 

Source: The Hindu

CONCEPT OF DEPRECIATION

The output of an economy also consists of production of machines/machineries which are consumed every year, referred to as deprecation and much of the output of such machines could be replacement in nature and not signifying additions to machine or capital stock in the economy. Let us assume that cars are being produced in an economy and there is also depreciation of cars , that is, the cars would eventually have to be replaced after their shell-life. For example, a car is priced at ₹ 3,00,000 and has a life of, say 10 years. Then, depreciation or consumption ) of car is ₹ 30 ,000 a year . Thus , if the output of an economy ignores consumption (or depreciation) of its machine stocks, it is referred as a ‘gross’ concept and if it is accounted for it is known as ‘net’ concept.

Accordingly, there is Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Hence,

GNP - Depreciation = Net National Product (NNP)

GDP — Depreciation = Net Domestic Product (NDP)

Thus, there are four concepts in the output of an economy—GNP, GDP, NNP and NDP.

Let us now try to understand which method is technically the best measure of growth.

Clearly, it is the NNP as it first covers all the nationals of a country and is also a net increase after depreciation. It is also 

called as “National Income” of an economy. But NNP/GNP are gradually 

losing significance since countries

have high external debts that are

serviced through internal resources

which tends to increase outflows and 

reduce GNP of a country, leaving GDP unaffected. Similarly, the sale of assets to foreign entities will also have similar affecting impact. Further remittances have become significant in economies like GNP not seen as a correct way to judge output of an economy.